#WEATHERRADAR 19118 UPDATE#

The forecast period in question now falls within the forecast horizon of the latest 18z NAM model (84 hours). The rain stays to our south at that time (Click on image for a larger view.) Today’s 18z GFS forecast for Sunday night (actually midnight Monday). Indeed, currently there’s remarkably good agreement in the models today, considering how far apart their forecasts were just a few days ago. I’m still keeping an eye on the weather for Sunday and based on today’s ECMWF along with the latest GFS, it appears that the rain will stay south of Philadelphia until after midnight Sunday. My regular readers know my mantra, “never ignore the NAM” which currently keeps us dry. Some sprinkles and light rain possible here during the Super Bowl, but not a sure bet. This NAEFS is more in line with the latest Canadian regional GEM, the latest German ICON model and the SREF. It’s 45% in Center City and for a six hour period, that’s relatively high for a six hour period. If we set the threshold for any rain lower, as little as 0.01 inches for the six hours preceding 10 PM Sunday, here’s the probability- Today’s 18z NAEFS probability of greater or equal to 0.01 inches of rain before 10 PM Sunday. Here’s its forecast probability of light rain before 10 PM Sunday - Today’s 18z NAEFS shows a 30% chance of rainfall greater or equal to 0.10 inches by 10 PM for the preceding six hours. The NAEFS combines the Canadian ensemble model with our GFS ensemble ( GEFS). Here’s the NAEFS that just became available.

#WEATHERRADAR 19118 UPDATE#

Update Thu 02/09 8:04 PM - So while the NAM, GFS and ECMWF posted below keep the rain to our south until midnight or after, the statistical models are not all that sure. The regular Weekend Weather Forecast will be posted later. It doesn’t appear to move much further north than the immediate suburbs. The precipitation on Sunday does now appear to move into Philadephia between 6-8PM. Update Fri 2/10 4:35 PM - A quick mobile update. #weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia

Weatherradar 19118